4 September 2017

Trend forecasting as seen from backstage

Article written by:
Corrado Manenti

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During the summer shutdown, I travelled around Indonesia with a group of people I did not know, and in the long hours of the transfer we also happened to talk about each other's jobs.

So I found that the most frequently asked questions from non-fashionistas are about trends: what are they? What will be in fashion? Why? How do you know in advance?

Below I have tried to reconstruct a very brief anatomy of trend forecasting, and to explain how a momentary mania can be distinguished from a micro trend and a micro trend from a movement.

Micro trend vs. macro trend

A micro trend starts with the first influencers and moves towards mass adoption within a year or two. These trends are important for the fashion industry, but tend to be smaller-scale realisations of the underlying desires of macro trends.

A macro trend, on the other hand, covers at least five years and impacts a variety of different fields, from technology to finance. A good example of a macro trend is the wellness boom.

Do we create trends?

No, we do not create trends. Trends are all around us. I always say that the past and the future are part of the present, if you look at it right ? you just have to catch the signs and analyse them. One of the things we do is separate isolated patterns from the underlying cultural movements.

How far can we predict trends?

Each season, we analyse these cultural movements and pause them. We look at how they have evolved in the last six months and how they might evolve in the years to come. In this way, we take into account the whole context of consumer behaviour, so that we can intervene in collections proactively, before the consumer knows what he wants, rather than reacting to it.

What kind of sources should be considered?

We keep an eye on different sources of inspiration to spot trends. From geopolitics to local subcultures, from avant-garde artists to Instagram influencers. In short, you always have to keep your eyes and ears wide open.